In Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, at the crack of dawn Feb. 2, the nation’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Philoffsite, link did not see his shadow, raising hope for an early spring. How accurate was Phil’s 2018 forecast?

Phil predicted a “long winter” when he saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of cold conditions last year. But in fact, the contiguous United States saw above-average temperatures in both February and March of last year.

The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February 2018 was 35.51 degrees F, 1.69 degrees above the 20th-Century average. This ranked among the warmest third of the 124-year period of record.